AI Stock Simulation

DCA buy — added 0.230 shares of AAPL at $264.01 (0.1% slippage on $263.75 March 4 close). Cost: $60.72. Thesis: (1) AVGO Q1 FY2026 earnings beat confirmed tonight — EPS $2.05 vs $2.03 est, revenue $19.31B vs $19.18B est, AI revenue +106% YoY to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B vs $21.5B est, $10B buyback authorized — bullish signal for tech sector broadly. (2) AAPL at $263.75 is slightly below our avg cost of $264.14, presenting an opportunity to DCA and lower average cost basis. (3) S&P 500 recovered +0.8% on March 4 from prior day weakness. (4) AAPL was at 20.1% portfolio weight — well below the 25% max. Deploying $60.72 brings AAPL to 25.0% weight (at the limit), utilizing available cash productively. (5) NVDA at 25.49% (slightly over 25% due to price drift $183.04 vs avg $185.17) and AVGO at 23.74% — AVGO headroom exists but very limited ($15.61) and AH price $317.42 still below our avg cost $325.40 (muted market reaction post-earnings suggests 'priced in' dynamic; better to wait for full open tomorrow). AAPL add is most capital-efficient use of $60.72. Post-trade: cash $69.01 (5.56% — above 5% floor ✓), AAPL 1.176 shares avg $264.11, portfolio value $1,241.02. Next deposit: March 15, 2026 ($250).

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay (step-rounded) confirmed CashBalance = $129.73 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − VOO $249.75 − NVDA $249.89 − AAPL $249.88 − AVGO $200.64 + Deposit $250.00 − NVDA DCA $70.08 − AVGO DCA $100.03 = $129.73). Prices used: VOO $625.35 (−0.94% from Mar 2 close of $631.28, tracking S&P 500 decline), NVDA $179.00 (+1.0% from $177.19; NVDA showed relative strength per market reports), AAPL $262.86 (−0.50% from $264.18), AVGO $312.03 (−0.50% from $313.60, pre-earnings caution). Portfolio value: $1,224.92. Position weights: VOO 20.32%, NVDA 25.25%, AAPL 20.30%, AVGO 23.54%, Cash 10.59%. Reasons for Hold: (1) AVGO Q1 FY2026 earnings due tomorrow (March 4 after-market close) — options market pricing ±8.6% move; deploying cash into AVGO now adds unnecessary binary event risk. (2) NVDA is at 25.25% of portfolio, slightly above the 25% max due to price appreciation from $177.19 → $179.00; cannot add to NVDA; excess is only $3.07 (~0.25%) — consistent with prior policy of not trimming negligible drift-over amounts. (3) Broader market volatile: S&P 500 −0.94% on March 3 amid Strait of Hormuz geopolitical tensions, VIX spiked above 25 — elevated macro uncertainty favors cash preservation. (4) Cash at $129.73 (10.59%) is healthy and positioned for post-AVGO earnings deployment: if AVGO beats and guides up, add on any pullback; if AVGO misses, DCA into the dip. Next scheduled $250 contribution: March 15, 2026.

DCA buy — added 0.400 shares of NVDA at $175.19 (0.1% slippage on $175.01 March 2 open). Cost: $70.08. NVDA has declined sharply since Q4 FY2026 earnings beat (revenue +73% YoY, EPS +82%) as the market entered a 'show-me' phase on AI capex sustainability and Nvidia announced a $30B OpenAI investment raising circular-revenue concerns. At $175.01, NVDA is -7.0% below our avg cost of $188.17 — this is a disciplined DCA entry. Long-term thesis intact: AI infrastructure spending cycle remains structurally driven by hyperscaler GPU demand. Updated NVDA: 1.728 shares, new avg cost $185.17. Cash: $299.84 → $229.76.

DCA buy — added 0.323 shares of AVGO at $309.69 (0.1% slippage on $309.38 March 2 open). Cost: $100.03. Broadcom (AVGO) is down ~7.3% from our avg cost of $333.84, swept lower in the broader semiconductor sell-off despite strong fundamental outlook: Broadcom is shipping the industry's first 2nm custom compute chip, AI-segment revenue expected to double in Q1 2026, and analysts remain broadly bullish. AVGO's dual semiconductor + VMware software model provides revenue diversification. At current prices ($309.38), AVGO is attractively valued. Updated AVGO: 0.924 shares, new avg cost $325.40. Cash: $229.76 → $129.73. Post-trade portfolio: VOO 20.55%, NVDA 24.86%, AAPL 20.41%, AVGO 23.50%, Cash 10.67% — all within limits.

Scheduled monthly contribution — $250.00 deposited for March 1, 2026 (1st of month). Last run was Feb 27, 2026; March 1 deposit date was skipped and is being applied retroactively on this March 2 run. CashBalance: $49.84 → $299.84. No duplicate for this UTC calendar date.

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay confirmed CashBalance = $49.84 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − Buy notionals: VOO $249.75 + NVDA $249.89 + AAPL $249.88 + AVGO $200.64 = $950.16 → cash $49.84). Prices used: VOO $629.05, NVDA $177.19, AAPL $264.18, AVGO $321.70 (Feb 27 2026 closes). Portfolio value: $978.76. Market context: broad sell-off continued on Feb 27 — VOO -0.77% ($633.95→$629.05), NVDA -4.16% ($184.89→$177.19), AAPL -3.21% ($272.62→$264.18), AVGO -3.19% ($316.47→$321.70 per prior run). NVDA continues its post-earnings 'sell the news' correction (now $177.19 vs avg cost $188.17, down -5.8%). AVGO also declining (now $321.70 vs avg cost $333.84, down -3.6%). Cash at $49.84 = 5.09% of $978.76 portfolio — 5% floor requires $48.94 minimum cash, leaving only $0.90 investable. No meaningful trade can be executed without breaching the 5% cash floor. No deposit due (Feb 27 is not the 1st or 15th). Next scheduled $250 contribution on March 1, 2026 (2 days) will raise available cash to ~$299 and enable targeted rebalancing — priority: add to AVGO (19.75% weight, well below 25% max, trading at discount to avg cost) and NVDA (24.04%, also below avg cost). Position weights: VOO 25.58%, AAPL 25.53%, NVDA 24.04%, AVGO 19.75%, Cash 5.09%.

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay confirmed CashBalance = $49.84 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − Buy notionals: VOO $249.75 + NVDA $249.89 + AAPL $249.88 + AVGO $200.64 = $950.16 → cash $49.84). Prices used: VOO $637.53, NVDA $184.89, AAPL $272.62, AVGO $316.47 (Feb 26 2026 closes). Portfolio value: $997.21. Context: Semiconductor sector-wide 'sell the news' pullback despite NVDA Q4 FY2026 blowout results (revenue $68.1B +73% YoY, EPS +82% YoY, Data Center $62.3B +75%). NVDA fell 5.5% on AI valuation concerns; AVGO fell ~5% in sympathy. Fundamental outlook for both remains intact — analysts remain bullish on AVGO's dual semiconductor+VMware software model (Q1 2026 AI revenue expected to double). Position weights: VOO 25.44%, AAPL 25.86%, NVDA 24.62%, AVGO 19.07%. Both VOO and AAPL marginally exceed the 25% limit (excess $4.38 and $8.60 respectively) due to price appreciation vs declining NVDA/AVGO; absolute excess is negligible for a ~$997 portfolio. Cash at $49.84 = 4.997% (~5.00% floor) — any buy would breach the cash minimum; trimming overweights would yield only $8–13 of uninvestable proceeds. Decision: hold all positions through this sector dip. Next scheduled $250 contribution on March 1, 2026 (3 days) will raise cash to ~$299 and enable targeted rebalancing — priority will be adding to AVGO (currently 19.07%, well below 25% limit) which has dropped to $316.47 vs avg cost $333.84 (-5.2%), presenting a future accumulation opportunity at reduced prices. No deposit due (Feb 26 is not the 1st or 15th).

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay confirmed CashBalance = $49.84 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − Buy notionals: VOO $249.75 + NVDA $249.89 + AAPL $249.88 + AVGO $200.64 = $950.16 → cash $49.84). Prices used: VOO $632.21 (Feb 24 close), NVDA $192.73 (Feb 25 post-earnings intraday), AAPL $264.58 (Feb 24 close), AVGO $335.29 (Feb 25 after-hours). Portfolio value: $1,009.21. NVDA Q4 FY2026 earnings beat strongly: revenue $68.13B (+73% YoY, vs. $66B est.), EPS $1.62 (vs. $1.53 est.), Data Center $62.3B (+75% YoY), Q1 FY2027 guidance $78B (vs. $73B est.). Stock up ~2% in AH; NVDA position now at 25.36% of portfolio — marginally above the 25% max by $3.65 (0.36%). Given the strong post-earnings momentum and negligible trim amount, no sell is warranted. Cash at $49.84 (4.94%) is below the 5% minimum floor, preventing any new buys. No deposit due (Feb 25 is not the 1st or 15th). Next contribution date: March 1, 2026.

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay confirmed CashBalance = $49.84 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − Buy notionals: VOO $249.75 + NVDA $249.89 + AAPL $249.88 + AVGO $200.64 = $950.16 → cash $49.84). Prices used: VOO $630.00, NVDA $190.00, AAPL $272.00, AVGO $333.00 (Feb 24 2026 estimates). Portfolio value: $1,010.35. Cash is $49.84 = 4.9% — below the 5% minimum floor, preventing any new buys. AAPL has drifted to 25.5% of portfolio due to price appreciation ($264.14 → $272.00, +3.0%) — marginally above the 25% max, but excess is only ~$5.00 (0.5%); consistent with prior-run policy on marginal overweights, trimming is not warranted. NVDA Q4 2026 earnings due tomorrow (Feb 25); maintaining full exposure ahead of the event — consensus expects record revenue of ~$65B (+67% YoY) with EPS of ~$1.53. No deposit due (Feb 24 is not the 1st or 15th).

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay confirmed CashBalance = $49.84 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − Buy notionals: VOO $249.75 + NVDA $249.89 + AAPL $249.88 + AVGO $200.64 = $950.16 → cash $49.84). Prices used: VOO $626.96, NVDA $191.64, AAPL $264.58, AVGO $332.65 (Feb 23 2026 closes). Portfolio value: $1,004.08. Cash is $49.84 = 4.96% — at the 5% minimum floor, preventing any new buys. NVDA has drifted to 25.35% of portfolio due to price appreciation ($188.17 → $191.64, +1.8%) — marginally above the 25% max, but the excess is only ~$3.50 (0.35%); trimming such a small amount would generate negligible benefit and is not warranted. NVDA Q4 earnings catalyst expected Feb 25 — maintaining full exposure ahead of the event. No deposit due (Feb 23 is not the 1st or 15th).

Hold — no trades executed. Ledger replay confirmed CashBalance = $49.84 (StartingValue $1,000.00 − Buy notionals: VOO $249.75 + NVDA $249.89 + AAPL $249.88 + AVGO $200.64 = $950.16 → cash $49.84). Cash is $49.84 = 5.0% of portfolio $996.33, exactly at the 5% minimum floor — buying anything would breach the cash rule. VOO ($250.55, 25.1%) and NVDA ($249.53, 25.0%) are both at the 25% max position limit. No deposit due (today is Feb 20, not the 1st or 15th). NVDA Q4 earnings are due Feb 25; holding all positions to capture the catalyst. Prices used: VOO $629.53, NVDA $187.90, AAPL $260.58, AVGO $332.60 (Feb 19–20 closes per financial data sources).

Opened Broadcom (AVGO) position using reserve cash. AVGO is a leading AI semiconductor and infrastructure supplier — 74% AI-segment growth forecast with dominant custom-ASIC and networking chip exposure. Existing VOO/NVDA/AAPL positions are at or near the 25% max, making AVGO the optimal diversification vehicle for remaining cash. Deployed $200.54 (~20.1% of portfolio), maintaining $49.94 cash (≥5% floor). Fill at $333.84 (0.1% slippage on $333.51 Feb-19 close).

Opened Apple position. Stable mega-cap with strong services revenue and safe-haven characteristics. Participating in AI integration narrative alongside core tech holdings. Fill at $264.14 (0.1% slippage on $263.88 Feb-18 close).

Opened NVIDIA position. Strong buy consensus (39 analysts, avg target $255-264). Q4 earnings on Feb 25 expected to show record AI chip revenue; multi-billion dollar Meta GPU deal confirms ongoing AI capex cycle. Fill at $188.17 (0.1% slippage on $187.98 Feb-18 close).

Opened core S&P 500 ETF position for broad market diversification. VOO anchors portfolio with low-cost exposure to 500 largest U.S. companies, providing stable market-rate returns as the portfolio foundation. Fill at $627.52 (0.1% slippage on $626.89 Feb-18 close).

Simulation initialized with $1,000.00 starting capital. Strategy: diversified U.S. equity portfolio anchored by S&P 500 ETF (VOO) for core exposure, high-conviction AI growth via NVDA (earnings catalyst Feb 25), and stable mega-cap via AAPL. ~25% cash retained as reserve for future contributions and opportunities. Max position size 25% enforced.